September, Thursday 19, 2024

Xi Jinping arrives in the United States amidst a faltering Chinese Dream.


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Xi Jinping's visit to San Francisco for the Apec summit is marked by a significant shift in circumstances since his last visit. Five years ago, Xi was leading China's booming economy and promoting its successful growth model. However, cracks in the Chinese Dream have since appeared, including a sluggish post-Covid economy, a credit crisis in the property market, and a growing debt bomb caused by borrowing by local governments and state-owned enterprises. China's structural slowdown has also affected various sectors of the economy and prominent businessmen, leading to uncertainty and concerns among foreign investors and companies. Additionally, youth unemployment has risen, and issues within Xi's power structure have emerged. This contrasts with the US, whose economy has weathered the post-Covid recovery better. Despite these challenges, Xi will aim to stabilize economic, trade, and investment relations with the US, seeking reassurance from President Biden regarding trade wars, tech rivalry, and economic decoupling. The location of the summit in San Francisco, home to Silicon Valley and leading tech companies, is significant, and the two leaders may discuss artificial intelligence and US technology export restrictions. Taiwan also presents a sensitive issue, as China wants the US to refrain from supporting Taiwanese independence, while the US has expressed its support for Taiwan. Areas for potential agreement include resuming military communication and cooperation on curtailing the flow of fentanyl ingredients. Chinese state media has shifted its tone to promote cooperation and resetting relations, indicating Xi's eagerness for a stabilized relationship due to economic and political pressures. Xi also aims to woo the US business community and will attend a dinner with top corporate executives. However, mutual suspicion is likely to persist, and existing trade and economic barriers may not be removed. Core interest issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea are expected to remain unresolved, as both sides reinforce their positions. Striking a balance between seeking a positive relationship with the US while appearing strong and resilient is a challenging task for the Chinese leadership.