Ukraine Considers Crimea Attacks as Crucial for Countering Russian Actions

This week, there have been significant Ukrainian attacks on the Crimean Peninsula targeting Russian warships and missiles. The damage caused is estimated to be worth billions of pounds, leading to speculation about Ukraine's intentions to retake Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. However, it is important not to jump to conclusions as Crimea remains under Russian control. According to Oleksandr Musiienko from Kyiv's Centre for Military and Legal Studies, the Ukrainian strategy has two main objectives. The first is to establish dominance in the north-western Black Sea, while the second is to weaken Russia's logistical opportunities for defense lines near Tokmak and Melitopol in the south. The operations in Crimea are closely linked to Ukraine's counter-offensive in the south, as they depend on each other. Recent successes in Crimea include the use of long-range cruise missiles supplied by the UK and France. These missiles dealt a heavy blow to Russia's Black Sea fleet at its home port of Sevastopol. Satellite images showed two blackened vessels at the Sevmorzavod dry dock repair facility. Additionally, a large amphibious landing ship called the Minsk and a Kilo-class submarine, used for launching cruise missiles into Ukraine, were severely damaged. The dry docks, essential for maintaining the Black Sea fleet, are expected to be out of use for many months. Ukraine has provided new details about its operations in Crimea. Special forces played a significant role, using boats and an unspecified "underwater delivery means" to access the area. They also utilized "special technical assets" to identify and target the vessels. Moreover, there were dramatic explosions as Ukraine destroyed one of Russia's modern air defense systems, an S-400, near Yevpatoria. Drones and Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles were part of this sophisticated operation to confuse and destroy Russia's air defenses. It is worth noting that Russia's attempts to use similar techniques in Kyiv have generally failed due to the presence of US Patriot interceptor missiles. Thursday marked the second time in less than a month that Ukraine disabled an S-400 system in Crimea. Previous operations by Ukraine have targeted Russian radar positions on offshore gas platforms and used experimental maritime drones to attack a hovercraft missile carrier at Sevastopol harbor. Crimea has been a primary target since Russia's invasion last year due to its airbases, troop concentrations, training grounds, and the Black Sea fleet. Ukraine's operations have become more sophisticated over time, from a drone attack in August 2022 that destroyed nine Russian aircraft to the combined drone and missile attacks happening now. With advanced weapons potentially on the horizon, Ukraine is expected to launch even more sophisticated operations. The goal is to blind Russia's air defense system and make each subsequent attack easier. There are reports that the Biden administration is close to approving the ATACMS long-range missile system after months of lobbying by Ukraine. While these developments suggest that Kyiv is getting closer to liberating Crimea, there is still much work to be done. Retired Ukrainian navy captain Andriy Ryzhenko emphasizes the need to liberate the Sea of Azov coast and cut off the land corridor. Additionally, the Kerch Bridge remains a target despite being heavily defended. Cutting off Crimea would be devastating for Russia and a significant victory for Ukraine's southern offensive. However, it is too soon to determine if these recent actions are a prelude to a Ukrainian effort to retake the peninsula. Ukrainian observers in Kyiv are cautious not to jump to conclusions. According to Musiienko, the current focus is on clearing the way to Crimea. Nevertheless, Ukraine's Secretary of National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, stated that if Russia does not voluntarily relinquish Crimea, Ukraine will have to take more forceful measures.