Possible Outcomes for the Kevin McCarthy Drama Before Speaker Vote

Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker of the US House, is facing a challenge to his position and he might need the help of the Democratic opposition in order to keep his job. McCarthy was elected to run the Republican-controlled lower chamber of Congress earlier this year after a lengthy process. As part of his election deal, McCarthy agreed to give conservatives an easy way to force a vote to remove him whenever they pleased. On Monday night, one of McCarthy's right-wing adversaries, Representative Matt Gaetz, triggered a vote on McCarthy's fate. There are three possible outcomes: the House will consider Gaetz's effort to remove McCarthy, McCarthy's allies may try to stop the motion, or McCarthy will need majority support from the House in order to stay in power. If Republicans support McCarthy, he could remain in office without any drama. However, five House Republicans, including Gaetz, have publicly stated that they will vote against McCarthy, and there may be more who join them. This means McCarthy will need the help of Democrats to avoid losing his job. Democrats could vote against the motion or choose to abstain, which would lower the number of votes McCarthy needs to secure majority support. However, this outcome would have political consequences, and Democrats may seek concessions from McCarthy in return for their support. If McCarthy loses the removal vote, there will be a new election for Speaker of the House, with temporary control given to a speaker chosen by McCarthy. The process of electing a speaker could drag on for days. Meanwhile, if Congress fails to take action and fund the government by November 17, there is a risk of a government shutdown.