The Potential Scenario of an Israeli Ground Attack on Gaza

Israel seems to be preparing for a ground invasion into Gaza as its military is urging 1.1 million people in the northern part of the strip to relocate to the south within the next 24 hours. The country is also massing tens of thousands of troops, tanks, and artillery on the edge of the territory. However, a ground invasion into Gaza's densely populated urban areas is a dangerous operation. The details of the potential assault, such as how far it would go and how long it would last, are still unclear. Major General Amos Gilead, a veteran of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), believes that the first step for Israel is to create a unity government to gain public support for the next move. Recent visits from American and European politicians have allowed Israel to secure international support, but the longer the war continues and civilian casualties increase, the more that solidarity may weaken. Additionally, Israel has already mobilized its forces near the border with Gaza, with 300,000 reservists and a standing force of over 160,000. The morale of the reservists appears to be high, and they are prepared to fight. Israel's warning to Palestinians living in Gaza to evacuate south indicates that the next phase of its military operation is imminent. The objective of the invasion is to secure Israel's own territory and eliminate or capture Hamas fighters responsible for the deaths of over 1,300 people and the kidnapping of at least 150. Israel has been carrying out intense airstrikes targeting Hamas' military infrastructure and leadership. Over the past six days, the Israeli air force has dropped more than 6,000 bombs on Gaza, causing over 1,500 casualties. While details of the invasion plans are closely guarded, Israel has been preparing for this operation for years. Israeli troops have received training in urban warfare in a multi-million dollar facility in the south that replicates the conditions of Gaza. The troops have been educated on how to navigate through tightly packed buildings and tunnels, of which Hamas is believed to have constructed over 1,000. Close-quarters combat in densely populated urban areas will present a significant challenge for Israel. The country has specialist teams trained in tunnel warfare and canine combat to aid in the fighting. Hamas is estimated to have around 30,000 troops armed with automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, and anti-tank missiles. However, they lack armored vehicles, tanks, and artillery, which Israel possesses. The fate of hostages taken from Israel adds another layer of complexity to a ground assault. While their well-being will be considered, Israel's focus will be on fighting Hamas. The goal is to destroy Hamas and prevent it from having the military capability to attack Israel in the future. However, historically, invasions rarely go according to plan. The Institute of Strategic Studies highlights that there are no ideal options for an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza, as the political support for resistance among the population will persist even if Hamas is defeated as a military organization. Israel faces the dilemma of either reoccupying Gaza to control it or withdrawing and allowing those who support the resistance to gain ground.