New outbreak of violence at Azerbaijan border claims lives of four Armenian soldiers

Armenia has reported that four soldiers were killed and another wounded in a recent escalation of violence on its border with Azerbaijan. This marks the first outbreak of hostilities since the two countries began peace talks. Azerbaijan claims to have destroyed an Armenian combat post in retaliation for a prior incident. Last year, Azerbaijan regained control of its Nagorno-Karabakh region, which had been occupied by ethnic Armenians for several decades. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attempting to escalate tensions. The attack in Armenia's Syunik province follows President Ilham Aliyev's reelection and raises concerns that Azerbaijan may seek further military action to seize Armenian territory. Azerbaijan's Defence Ministry alleges that its attack was in response to an Azerbaijani soldier being wounded a few kilometers away. It also highlighted another disputed border incident, which Armenia denies. Recently, Azerbaijan's officials claimed that relations between the two countries had become calmer. However, Armenia's foreign ministry expressed serious concerns about Armenia's provocation and its impact on the ongoing peace process. Last September, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Azerbaijan following its military's recapture of Karabakh. The latest violence has reignited speculation that an increasingly confident Azerbaijan, with the assistance of Russia, may be pressuring Armenia to open the Zangezur corridor, a transportation route through Armenian territory to Nakhchivan, and potentially Turkey. Iran, Armenia's neighbor, is also worried about Azerbaijan's plans for linking Turkey and Azerbaijan via Armenia. Russia has called on both countries to exercise restraint and aims to maintain a presence in the region, as it has peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh. Armenia has distanced itself from its former ally, Russia, after its failure to prevent Azerbaijan's military takeover of Karabakh. The country now views France and India as its primary arms suppliers. However, removing Russia's influence from Armenia poses challenges, as key infrastructure and military cooperation are under Russian control. Armenia is also discussing constitutional changes demanded by Azerbaijan as part of the proposed peace agreement, including removing references to the goal of unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. This change is seen by Baku as a continued legal claim on Azerbaijani territory. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's popularity in Armenia has declined since the military defeat, and pro-government voices in Azerbaijan blame the flare-up of violence on opposition forces within Armenia, rather than the prime minister, implying their influence over segments of the Armenian armed forces.