At-risk Republicans skillfully navigate the inquiry vote on Biden impeachment

All 221 Republicans in the US House of Representatives have backed a formal impeachment hearing of President Joe Biden. However, this move could be politically risky for some lawmakers, especially those representing divided districts. These vulnerable Republicans may have to defend their support of the investigation, which many constituents could view as deeply partisan. The 17 Republicans representing districts that President Biden won in 2020 are particularly at risk of losing their seats in the upcoming 2024 US election. The outcome of how these lawmakers navigate the impeachment inquiry could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives next year. Republican pollster Dan Judy noted that these House members are already facing an uphill battle in swing districts. The push to impeach President Biden stems from investigations into his son Hunter Biden, who Republicans have accused of engaging in illegal or unethical business dealings. However, these investigations have failed to implicate the president in any wrongdoing. Swing or independent voters may question whether an impeachment inquiry is the best use of government resources, according to Judy. Most lawmakers appeared cautious in their statements or remained silent when asked about the vote. Some framed their decision as a vote in favor of granting the House greater investigatory power. An example is Rep. Young Kim of California, who flipped her seat from Democrat to Republican in 2020 but saw President Biden win her district by almost 2%. The Democratic political committee quickly criticized vulnerable lawmakers who supported the impeachment inquiry, including Kim. The stakes are particularly high for New York lawmakers, as there are currently five Republicans in the state representing districts won by President Biden. These lawmakers face newly redrawn districts in 2024 that are expected to favor Democrats. This puts them in a difficult scenario where they are scrutinized regardless of their decision. Some New York lawmakers, such as Rep. Mike Lawler, argued that the inquiry was necessary for gathering evidence and witness testimony. However, political strategist Evan Stavisky warned that going too far ahead on either side could lead to a backlash from voters. Public opinion on the matter remains mixed, with different views along party lines. According to a poll, 35% of American adults believe President Biden did something illegal, while 33% think he did something unethical but not illegal. Interestingly, two-thirds of Republican voters believe President Biden did something illegal, while nearly 60% of Democrats believe he is innocent. Only a third of Americans currently support the Republican impeachment inquiry. Despite the political risks, Republican analysts argue it is too early to predict the consequences for these House members. They believe this vote alone will not significantly impact the races next year, as there is still over a year to go before the 2022 election.