William Lai: Taiwan Elects President That China Strongly Dislikes - What Comes Next?

Taiwan has elected its next president, William Lai Ching-te, despite strong warnings from China against voting for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Beijing has labeled Lai a "troublemaker" and a dangerous "separatist." China sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has made unification a goal. Lai, a 64-year-old doctor-turned politician and the current vice-president, will lead Taiwan through its delicate relationship with China. This marks an unprecedented third term for the DPP, a party that China views as pushing the boundaries of Taiwanese independence. Lai's approach to Beijing and how Beijing reacts to him will shape his presidency. Although Lai has promised to continue his predecessor's policies, he is considered more of a firebrand than President Tsai Ing-wen. Beijing has banned Lai and his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, from travel to mainland China and Hong Kong, demonstrating its mistrust of the new president. China is unlikely to engage in any dialogue with Lai, as formal communication between the two sides has been suspended since 2016. The election result will maintain the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, with frequent intrusions by Chinese ships and military aircraft. China may respond to Lai's election by increasing military force, stepping up economic and diplomatic pressure, and sanctioning Taiwanese companies and individuals. Lai's strategy to counter the Chinese military threat is to expand Taiwan's military, continue the indigenous submarine building program, and strengthen relationships with the United States, Japan, and Europe. However, there are concerns that Lai, with his pro-independence background, could be more provocative as president. Nevertheless, his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim is seen as a reassurance to the Biden administration. Despite Lai's efforts, Beijing cannot ignore the message his win sends. The DPP won by a wider margin than expected, signaling to China that Taiwan's future will be determined by its people. The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) ran a campaign centered around fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. A KMT win would likely have resulted in reduced threats and military intimidation from China, increasing the possibility of dialogue. The young voters who see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese did not align with the KMT, even though the party no longer actively advocates for unification with China. The dissatisfaction with the DPP over rising house prices and stagnant wages might result in the party losing its majority in parliament. The KMT, in coalition with the Taiwan People's Party, is likely to oppose President Lai's agenda. Lai's presidency will also be shaped by the outcome of the United States' presidential election, as his government will have to navigate a potentially different ally in the White House if Donald Trump becomes president.