September, Friday 20, 2024

Firing Zaluzhnyi won't immediately fix Ukraine's battle problems


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There has been speculation for months that Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's popular military chief, was going to be replaced. This uncertainty has had a negative impact on morale at home and abroad. The reasons behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to make this change are not fully known, but it is important to note that Gen Zaluzhnyi was personally chosen for the position by the president in 2021, ahead of more experienced officers. Gen Zaluzhnyi had already proven himself in battle as a commander in eastern Ukraine, fighting against pro-Russian separatists. However, it is the president's prerogative to appoint the leader of the military. Gen Ben Hodges, the former head of the US Army in Europe, believes that when it becomes apparent that the government has lost confidence in a military leader, it is their duty to step down to maintain civilian control over the military. Gen Hodges had dealings with Gen Zaluzhnyi and believed that he was trying to modernize the Ukrainian military and move away from the old Soviet era thinking. He also believes that Gen Zaluzhnyi will be remembered for stopping the Russians. However, in reality, Gen Zaluzhnyi faced a significant challenge in transforming Ukraine's military into a modern NATO force. Defence analyst Justin Crump believes that this was an almost impossible task, especially considering that Ukrainian soldiers only received a few weeks of Western training. Gen Zaluzhnyi, although a post-Soviet era general, was still heavily influenced by it. He acknowledged this and looked to NATO and the West for training, reconstruction, and restructuring of the armed forces. He was credited with adopting more agile Western-style command structures, which proved effective during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gen Mark Milley, the former head of the US military, credited President Zelensky for the successes of the Ukrainian armed forces during that time. Gen Zaluzhnyi continued to surprise Russia with his tactics, but the subsequent Ukrainian offensive in 2023 did not yield the anticipated results, leading Gen Zaluzhnyi to call it a stalemate. This may have strained his relationship with the president, as the Ukrainian leadership did not want the word stalemate associated with the offensive. Despite the breakdown in their relationship, Gen Zaluzhnyi's departure seems amicable, and he will continue to advise the president. It may be a politically astute move by President Zelensky, as some opinion polls indicated that Gen Zaluzhnyi was more popular than him. Gen Zaluzhnyi has strong relationships with Western military leaders and intends to continue the fight by building an arsenal of drones. His replacement, Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, has also been serving as the commander in the east for the past two years. The shake-up at the top will not immediately resolve the ongoing crises in Ukraine, including shortages of ammunition and manpower.