September, Friday 20, 2024

Kyiv's Hope Sours as US Impasse Threatens the Ukraine War


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Ukraine is currently facing some of its most challenging days since Russia's invasion began. The anticipated counter-offensive has stalled, and the US and EU are struggling to reach an agreement on providing financial and weapons aid. The US aid package has become entangled in Congressional disputes, and the ongoing Israel-Gaza war has diverted global attention. While officials remain positive outwardly, there is a underlying sense of a darker mood. Confidence in victory has waned compared to a year ago, according to Iryna, who reminisces with her husband about life before the invasion. They hope for Ukraine's triumph and express the need for assistance from abroad. President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled a virtual meeting with US lawmakers without providing an official reason, but it occurred just before a Senate vote on an aid package that is likely to fail. The spending bill includes a significant portion for Ukraine, along with funds for Israel, Taiwan, and the US southern border. However, the bill is expected to face opposition from Republicans because of disagreements over border measures, which were the cause of bickering during the virtual meeting with Zelensky. The possibility of signing off on a substantial economic assistance package from the EU and initiating formal talks for Ukraine's future EU membership is also in jeopardy. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has threatened to veto the proposals, citing doubts about Ukraine's ability to prevail against Russia, even with additional aid from Europe. The uncertainties surrounding external support are distressing for Tetyana, who tearfully reveals that her son is serving on the front line and expresses the urgent need for more weapons to protect their children. Ukrainian opposition MP Oleksiy Goncharenko acknowledges that obtaining Western support is becoming increasingly challenging. The agonizing wait for aid is detrimental, and he questions whether the West's commitment to Ukraine only extends for a limited period. Goncharenko believes that Putin is the sole beneficiary of the current situation. Although there was great anticipation for Ukraine's counter-offensive, numerous post-mortems have attributed its failure to issues such as a lack of air superiority, strategic miscalculations, and formidable Russian defenses. Defense analyst Oleksandr Musiienko suggests that as the counter-offensive appears to be concluding, Ukraine should not allow the Russians to rest during the winter. He advises continuing long-range strikes in occupied territory and localized offensive operations, while simultaneously preparing for a fresh offensive next year. The arrival of additional weapons would improve Ukraine's chances. However, Russia has the advantage in terms of time and a vast reservoir of manpower. There have been reported tensions between President Zelensky and his top general regarding the war's progress, but Ukraine remains determined to fight and enhance domestic arms production. While the will to fight within Ukraine is strong, the contribution of weapons and funds from international partners remains crucial. Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Vasiuk emphasizes the need for urgent and comprehensive support for a decisive victory. He expresses confidence that the US and EU will overcome their differences. The sentiment among Kyiv pensioner Volodymyr and others is that evil must be destroyed, and they hope that the US, EU, and the rest of the world understand this.