September, Friday 20, 2024

Controversy unfolds over 2024 election amidst ongoing conflict in Ukraine


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Ukraine is currently facing a heated debate over whether it should hold a presidential election next year, which is originally scheduled. However, all elections, including presidential ones, are prohibited under the country's martial law, which was imposed following Russia's invasion in February 2022. Many Ukrainians are concerned that holding elections would divert attention from their fight against Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky previously stated that it was not the right time for elections, but the issue continues to fuel political tensions. Interestingly, the discussion about Ukrainian elections is partly being driven by US politicians, particularly within the Republican party. Some hard-right Republicans are using this issue to justify their demand to block military aid to Ukraine. As Donald Trump's isolationist views gain influence in the party, the topic of supporting Ukraine becomes entangled in US domestic politics and party divisions. Despite the support from many Republicans for Ukraine, there are concerns that the far-right wing of the party may use this issue against Ukraine during the upcoming US presidential elections in 2024. Even though President Zelensky has not categorically rejected holding elections, there are numerous obstacles to conducting a vote, including security concerns, challenges related to a displaced population, damaged infrastructure such as schools used as polling stations, outdated voter registries, restricted rights under martial law, and insufficient funding. Experts agree that holding free and fair elections in these circumstances would be extremely challenging. Unsurprisingly, a survey conducted in November revealed that over 80% of respondents in Ukraine preferred to hold elections only after the war has ended. While MPs from both opposing and ruling parties argue against holding elections next year, President Zelensky's ambiguous statements have sparked domestic backlash. Opposition MPs and media have reported that preparations are being made for the presidential elections in 2024, with some politicians announcing their plans to run for office. President Zelensky, in response, made a televised address to dispel these rumors and stated that it was not the right time for elections due to the ongoing war. The constitution of Ukraine states that the incumbent president continues their duties until a newly elected president assumes office. However, if the war persists for an extended period, there may be a need to explore ways to hold elections in such conditions. It is widely agreed among politicians and experts that preparations for post-war elections must begin now. However, there are significant challenges to overcome, such as the destruction of election infrastructure in war-torn areas and the difficulty of ensuring voter participation, especially with the large number of Ukrainian refugees who may not quickly return home even after the war. Discussions on alternative methods of voting, such as postal voting or online voting, will require changes to legislation, but MPs are hesitant to address these issues due to concerns of being seen as preparing for war-time elections. As the war continues and progress on the front line stalls, there is growing fear of losing national unity. Ukrainian parties and political groups acknowledge that they cannot afford to engage in peace-time political conflicts while still fighting against Russia, but maintaining this consensus becomes more challenging as the war drags on. Additionally, the politics of Ukraine's Western partners also contribute to the situation.