Tensions Rising: The Growing Confrontation Between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea

In recent months, tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea have escalated, with encounters at sea now being filmed by the media. The Philippine government has deliberately aimed to draw attention to China's assertive control over the disputed waters, referring to it as a "brute force" approach. The government began sharing more video footage of these encounters with local media in January, and by summer, journalists were being brought onto Philippine boats and aircraft to witness the incidents firsthand. This new strategy has caught China off guard, leading to a temporary decrease in its activities. During this time, the Philippines was able to make re-supply runs to an outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal. However, analysts believe that China expects the outpost, which is located on a crumbling ship called the Sierra Madre, to eventually be evacuated by the Philippines. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has shifted its foreign policy, no longer cozying up to China and instead renewing its alliance with the United States while actively highlighting China's incursions into Manila's Exclusive Economic Zone. Sources claim that the Philippines has been quietly shipping construction materials to the Sierra Madre to reinforce the ship, which is on the verge of collapsing. This sense of urgency has increased tensions between the two countries, as the Philippines is desperate to maintain its presence on the Ayungin Shoal while China is determined to assert its power. The future outcome is uncertain, but if the Sierra Madre collapses, questions arise regarding China's next move, whether Manila will attempt to ground another vessel on Ayungin Shoal, and how the United States will respond.