The New Era of Prabowo Subianto: Anticipating Indonesia's Strong-Handed Leader

In the recent presidential election in Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto emerged as the apparent winner by a larger margin than expected. While the official confirmation of the results is still pending, it is widely accepted that Subianto will be the president for the next five years. The transition between administrations in Indonesia is typically slow, with the Election Commission taking up to a month to confirm the outcome and the inauguration of the new president taking place in October. During this time, negotiations will take place to determine the kind of government Subianto will form. Although Subianto's victory in the presidential race seems decisive, his party is projected to win only 13% of the seats in parliament. To pass laws and have a working majority, he will need to form alliances with other parties, some of which supported rival candidates. This will likely involve offering cabinet positions as inducements. The outgoing president, Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, was adept at coalition politics and managed to secure support from over 80% of MPs in his last term. Subianto will have to decide whether to adopt a similar approach and how to navigate his relationship with Megawati Sukarnoputri, the leader of the largest party, the PDIP, who was disappointed by Jokowi's defection to the Subianto camp. There are also questions about Subianto's relationship with Jokowi. Jokowi's popularity played a crucial role in Subianto's campaign, and his son was chosen as Subianto's running mate. If anything were to happen to Subianto, his inexperienced son might rely on his father's help. However, the example of the Philippines shows that such arrangements can fall apart, as President Rodrigo Duterte discovered after supporting Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr's successful 2022 campaign. Indonesians will have to adjust to a different leadership style under Subianto, who has a reputation for ill-tempered outbursts and abrasive opinions. Some view his presidency with concern, fearing that he may be xenophobic and authoritarian. However, during the campaign, Subianto transformed his public image into that of a grandfatherly figure, which may have helped him win support. It is worth noting that Subianto has been seeking the presidency since 2004 and has strategically rebuilt his reputation after being dismissed from the army and forced into exile in 1998. He has promised to continue his predecessor's development and infrastructure-focused policies, positioning himself as the heir to a line of Indonesian presidents rather than a radical departure.