Poland's Anticipated Election Upheaval Brings Joy to Brussels

The exit polls from Poland's election have brought joy to Eurocrats. Poland's centrist opposition Civic Coalition, led by former European Council chief Donald Tusk, has sent a clear message to Brussels that they are back as the fifth-largest country in the EU. The European Union has been concerned about Poland's election, although they have been cautious about interfering in national votes publicly. Poland and Hungary have been seen as EU bad-boys for their flawed democracies and hostility towards the EU. The EU has criticized Poland for violating democratic norms, such as limiting women's rights and threatening judicial and press freedom. Moreover, Poland and Hungary have obstructed EU-wide measures on migration and climate goals. The expected outcome of the election is a relief for Brussels, as it goes against the trend of a rising Eurosceptic hard right in other European countries. The Civic Coalition aims to return to the European mainstream, but their influence may be limited by the outgoing conservative Law and Justice party. European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas is optimistic about improving relations with Poland, seeing Warsaw as a core member of the European family. Brussels is also interested in mending ties with Poland due to the potential impact on Ukraine, as any disunity among Ukraine's international backers benefits Russia. Nato has been less concerned about Poland's election result, as it has observed Poland's dedication to supporting Ukraine regardless of the ruling party. The United States, especially under President Donald Trump, has been frustrated with its European allies' lack of defense spending. Therefore, the US is pleased that Poland invests 3% of its GDP in defense and believes that the Civic Coalition is unlikely to reverse this. Poland is concerned about the war in Ukraine and plans to become Europe's strongest army by 2026 to prevent any spillover into its borders.