China's Tactics in the Grey Area: A Closer Look at their Actions Against Taiwan

China's repeated incursions into Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) are part of Beijing's strategy to control Taiwan without resorting to military conflict, according to analysts. By regularly crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ, China is testing the island's response and assessing its own capabilities. These maneuvers serve to weaken Taiwan over a prolonged period, with the ultimate goal of reunification with China. The military drills also aim to reset the baseline and deny Taiwan's assertion of having a border with China in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's military, which is outnumbered and outdated compared to China's, would be significantly overmatched in a direct confrontation. However, there is currently limited public support in Taiwan for significantly increasing defense spending. China's military drills have escalated in response to high-level political exchanges between Taiwan and the US, which China sees as provocations. These drills have become increasingly militarized and could potentially lead to miscalculations or unintended escalation. While China has resumed dialogue with the US, it remains committed to its policy of reunification with Taiwan, even without foreign triggers. However, China also needs to navigate carefully in the coming months to avoid bolstering support for pro-Taiwan independence candidates in Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. China's military drills are expected to continue growing in size and frequency, possibly approaching levels seen in a real attack.