Taiwan Reveals New Submarine as a Defense Measure Against China

Taiwan has unveiled its first domestically-produced submarine in an effort to strengthen its defenses against potential attacks from China. The launch ceremony, presided over by President Tsai Ing-wen, took place in Kaohsiung on Thursday. US officials have warned that China could have the military capacity to invade Taiwan within a few years. Taiwan is considered a renegade province by China, which has expressed its intention to reclaim the island. Although analysts do not believe an attack is imminent, China has increased military drills in the Taiwan Strait in order to exert pressure on Taiwan and discourage the island from declaring independence with foreign support. The $1.54 billion submarine, named Haikun, is the first of two submarines in production and will be delivered to the navy by the end of 2024. Taiwan aims to eventually operate a fleet of 10 submarines, equipping them with missiles. The domestic submarine project has been a priority for Taiwan's leaders, and President Tsai has significantly increased military spending during her tenure. China's response to the unveiling has not been officially stated, but state media outlet Global Times dismissed the plan as a "daydream" and an "illusion," asserting that China has already constructed an anti-submarine network around Taiwan. Nevertheless, observers believe that the new submarines could enhance Taiwan's defense capabilities. While Taiwan's 10-submarine fleet would be dwarfed by China's fleet, the island has pursued an asymmetric warfare strategy, building a more agile defense force to counteract a larger adversary. The submarines can potentially engage in guerrilla-style warfare by utilizing stealth, lethality, and surprise capabilities, which would be beneficial in safeguarding the straits and channels that link the "first island chain." However, some experts argue that the main battlefield in a potential naval conflict between China and Taiwan would likely be the shallower waters on the west coast of Taiwan, rather than the deep waters on the east coast where submarines would be most effective. While the submarines' deployment would have an impact, it is not considered decisive. In addition to serving as deterrents, the submarines could be used for ambushes, mine-laying operations, disrupting maritime oil supplies, and destroying key facilities along the Chinese coastline. The achievement of designing and building its own submarine is significant for Taiwan. The Haikun submarine incorporates a combat system from US defense company Lockheed Martin and will carry US-made missiles. Several countries, including the UK, have provided components, technology, and talent to aid Taiwan's submarine program, reflecting a geopolitical shift and dissatisfaction with Beijing. The launch took place amidst increasing military drills by China and heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait. US military and intelligence officials have presented different timelines for a possible Chinese invasion, with 2027 suggested as a potential date. However, it is uncertain if Chinese President Xi Jinping will proceed with an invasion, as he reportedly has doubts about China's chances of success.