Key Republican storylines to keep an eye on during the Iowa caucuses

After months of campaigning, Republican voters in Iowa will finally have the chance to vote for their party's 2024 presidential nominee. While the field has narrowed down, former President Donald Trump remains a dominant figure in the party's future. The focus leading up to the Iowa caucuses has been on weather conditions rather than potential winners. However, Trump is expected to win due to his strong support among Republican voters in the state and a well-organized campaign team. The key goal for Trump is not just a victory but a substantial one that solidifies his position as the party's nominee at the Republican national convention in July. Winning with over 50% of the vote in Iowa could impact the momentum of other candidates like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in the next state, New Hampshire. Although Iowa historically has only narrowed down the field rather than determining the ultimate nominee, this year is different with Trump campaigning as an incumbent president. The battle for second place is crucial, with Haley and DeSantis competing against each other for that spot. A close finish between them would only benefit Trump's divide-and-conquer strategy. However, even securing a comfortable runner-up finish does not guarantee future success to challenge Trump. Haley and DeSantis have different prospects in New Hampshire, with Haley having broader support among college-educated voters and independents. On the other hand, DeSantis's campaign relies heavily on a positive showing in Iowa as he struggles to connect with New Hampshire voters. The outcome in Iowa will have significant implications for these candidates' campaigns moving forward. Trump's dedicated supporters, known for their commitment and willingness to endure harsh conditions, may give him an edge in the caucuses. However, DeSantis might appeal to the evangelical voters in Iowa, known for their active participation. Haley, with her college-educated supporters and opposition to Trump, could also benefit. The weather conditions add an element of unpredictability to the caucus night, and turnout remains uncertain. Other candidates like Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Asa Hutchinson, who have minimal support, are unlikely to achieve meaningful success in Iowa or future states. Monday night's results could serve as a reality check for them.