Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy stirs up tensions with ambitions for a Red Sea port

Ethiopia has been consumed by rumors of a potential new war, which would be Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's fourth in five years. Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts to reconcile with Eritrea, has been taking steps to prepare for war, including importing weapons and mobilizing his army. He has also emphasized the importance of access to the sea for Ethiopia, leading many to believe that his target is the Eritrean Red Sea port of Assab. This port was once part of Ethiopia until Eritrea gained independence over 30 years ago. Since then, Ethiopia has relied on neighboring Djibouti for its trade. However, many Ethiopians interpret Abiy's statements as a threat of force against Eritrea. Abiy denies these intentions publicly and has called for dialogue through an emergency summit of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad). However, his aggressive posture and arms race have consequences, as it has sparked concerns among Ethiopia's neighbors and caused instability in the region. Middle Eastern actors, such as the UAE, are also facing dilemmas as they navigate their relationship with Ethiopia. Abiy's unpredictability has caused Eritrea to position itself as a responsible power, while Ethiopia's other neighbors are forming an informal bloc to contain the country. If a war were to occur, Ethiopia would face challenges in finding soldiers to fight, as its army has been depleted from previous conflicts. Additionally, the country's struggling economy would struggle to fund a war. The risks in the region are alarmingly high, and there is a pressing need to avoid any further conflict.