Report: Carbon Emissions Jeopardize 1.5C Climate Threshold Sooner than Anticipated

A new report suggests that human fossil fuel emissions are endangering a crucial climate threshold at a much faster rate than previously believed. Researchers warn that the 1.5C limit could be breached by 2029, instead of the mid-2030s, due to record-breaking carbon dioxide emissions over the past three years. The study also highlights the importance of understanding how the burning of fossil fuels impacts the atmosphere. The year 2023 is expected to see temperatures close to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, and scientists are concerned that future greenhouse gas emissions will make it difficult to lower temperatures. The 1.5C goal is significant because it was a commitment made by political leaders when they signed the Paris climate agreement in 2015. It is crucial for developing states and small island nations, as surpassing this level of warming could lead to rising oceans. In order to determine how long it will take for the world to reach this threshold, scientists calculated a "budget" for carbon emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the world could only emit another 500 billion tonnes of carbon before surpassing the 1.5C mark. However, this research suggests that the threshold will be crossed much sooner. By analyzing data up to 2020 and considering other factors such as aerosols, the researchers determined that only 250 billion tonnes of carbon can still be emitted to stay below the 1.5C limit. This new understanding of the role of aerosols reveals a more significant impact on cooling the atmosphere than previously thought. However, reducing air pollution by limiting the burning of fossil fuels leads to a decrease in aerosols, causing temperatures to rise faster than expected. Lead author Dr. Robin Lamboll from Imperial College London warns that the window to avoid 1.5C of warming is shrinking rapidly. The researchers estimate that global carbon dioxide emissions would need to reach net zero by 2034 to prevent surpassing 1.5C, but achieving this goal seems unlikely based on current scenarios. With the upcoming COP26 meeting in Dubai, this study emphasizes the urgency for more aggressive actions on emissions. The analysis is considered a wake-up call to cut emissions as quickly as possible to save every ton of carbon dioxide and mitigate the potential damage from temperature increases.